• chrisbdbets

UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Clark

Looking for some last minute gambling advice? No?

Well shit. I ran the model anyway and compared the win probabilities of each individual fighter against the weekly Vegas odds. Results are below as well as a detail of striking by fighter:

Fighters I am on:

Su Mudaerji (-350)

This is the fight I am most interested to see tonight. Mudaerji looked great in his last bout and he should pull out another solid performance.

Luke Sanders (-160)

Nate Maness didn't show much in his first UFC fight so I am going with the octagon experience of Sanders. That is all.

Rachael Ostovich (+165)

I get that Ostovich isn't that good of a fighter, I do. But nothing in my mind can rationalize Gina Mazany being a -205 favorite in this fight. Maybe I am stupid - which is probably the correct answer here, but I think there is a high probability that Ostovich grinds out a very boring decision win.

Norma Dumont (+120)

Dumont did not look bad in her UFC debut against Megan Anderson where she seemed in control until she was knocked out with a heavy punch. This time around, Dumont will not be as undersized and will be facing a less lethal striker in Evans-Smith. She will also have the advantage of not making weight which should tip the scales in her favor even more.

Devin Clark (+110)

Anthony Smith is on a 2 fight losing streak and has not looked anything like the fighter we saw get a title push since beating Alexander Gustafsson. I will be ecstatic if he turns his career around tonight however I don't think that will happen.

Data provided by www.ufcstats.com

Lines provided by www.bovada.lv

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