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UFC Covington v. Woodley

On the eve of one of the most stacked UFC Fight Nights I have seen in awhile, the questions need to be asked - why is Covington so heavily favored in this fight? Do the sportsbooks not know that I am trying to make money here? Do they expect me to to just wager money to get 1/3 of the return?


The answers to these questions are below:

  1. Because Tyron has a punchers chance

  2. They do. And they hate you.

  3. Yes

I will break down more attractive odds below, but first the viz:


Colby Covington (-335)

I think this is a safe bet. That being said, there are always more fun ways of increasing your risk and return:

  1. Bet on Tyron Woodley (+255)

I don't personally like this idea, but how often do you get those odds on a former UFC champion? Tyron's homerun-swing style, although exposed in the last 2 fights, can still work at a high level. The difference maker in this case will of course be Covington, who is more of a grappler who can strike as opposed to a striker that can grapple, most of Woodley's wins came against the latter.


2. Covington by Decision (-160)


It's the most likely outcome in my opinion. Covington has not gotten a finish since 2016 as his style leans more towards dominating every round with a superior pace.


3. Covington by Submission (+900)


Personal favorite. If Covington gets Woodley to the ground in the later rounds and takes his back he could set up a choke - neither Burns nor Usman were able to do this hence the odds being so low.


Khamzat Chimaev (-450)

I wrote about how this guy was going to take 2 division belts after his UFC debut so I am going to try to take my bias out here. Khamzat has been labeled and the next big thing in the UFC by me and countless others and is getting his first real push against an experienced veteran in Gerald Meerschaert. Typically when this happens, the hype trains get derailed (see Johnny Walker and Edmen Shahbazyan). This alone would make Meerschaert an interesting risk to take but of course, I don't think he is going to win so here is a more interesting risk:

  1. Khamzat Chimaev by Decision (+333)

This is Khamzat's first real test. In his first 2 fights, only 1 punch was landed on him as he was clearly on another level from his competition. He likes taking his opponents to the ground where Meerschaert is most comfortable and its possible he does not get the finish here.



Other Fighters I Like:


Jordan Espinosa (-120) - I think he is the faster fighter which will be the difference.


Journey Newson (-135) - Randy Costa will have the size advantage but tends to be wild at times. Newson meanwhile has been the shorter fighter in every UFC bout thus far, he is also more controlled and has knockout power. I expect this to go the same way as the Pilarte fight.


Kevin Holland (-265) - Heavy favorite (perhaps too heavy)- Holland and Stewart have been facing similar competition and performing well, I just thing Holland is a better finisher.


Donald Cerrone (+120) - Surprised Cerrone is the underdog here - he is on a 4 fight losing streak but he has been facing top competition.


Randa Markos (+145) - I think this is going to be a close fight, both are grapplers with similar striking abilities. With how upset-prone the Womens' divisions are in the UFC I think its completely possible Markos gets a win here.




Data provided by www.ufcstats.com

Lines provided by www.bovada.lv


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