• chrisbdbets

Simulating the MLB Wild Card Round

The MLB playoffs are here and its time to breakdown how the first round will go. Personally, I prefer the shorter season with more playoff teams but this is probably a once in a lifetime season format that we will never see again. I have been experimenting with mixed results machine learning applications towards picking games so I am going to let the computer tell me what it thinks and I will dissent.



The charts below are identical to allow for comparing teams. They break down the top hitting and pitching performers on each team for the 2020 season.









Braves: Between 80% and 90% chance of winning their series

The Braves were first in OPS this season and should be able to outscore the Reds. That being said, Cincinnati could steal Game 1 with Bauer pitching which will put Atlanta in a tight spot.


Cubs: > 90% chance of winning their series

I think this makes sense, the Cubs were able to get more consistency hitting the ball when compared to the Brewers. Plus they are at home and the algorithm heavily prefers the home team.


Indians: Between 60% and 70% chance of winning their series

This seems about right. Many analysts are taking the Yankees in this series but it will be difficult for New York to get a lead with Beiber pitching in Game 1.


Dodgers: > 90% chance of winning their series

This World Series is LA's to lose at this point.


Twins: > 90% chance of winning their series

Nothing would make me happier but I think this is closer than the algorithm suggests. Both teams are top heavy when looking at pitchers' strikeouts and Houston has more 30+ hitters.


Athletics: Between 70% and 80% chance of winning their series

Gonna call bullshit here - moneyball has yet to work in the playoffs.


Padres: Between 60% and 70% chance of winning their series

Fair. The Padres are talented but strike me as in the "still need experience" stage.


Rays: > 90% chance of winning their series

The series seems a lot closer than the algorithm suggests but the Rays appear to be a deeper team.



Data provided by www.mlb.com


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