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NFL Week 1 Picks

Thursday's game ratings were apparently terrible so here is a crazy thought: the NFL preseason is just a 4 week marketing campaign for the regular season. Because of the preseason, we are forced to watch Hard Knocks and sub par football until we have had enough and demand the full product. Then week 1 comes rolling in to save the day just as the audience is about to leave. The NFL preseason is like Cher opening up for your favorite musician - its fucking terrible but you tolerate it and at the end of the day it makes the artist you came to see better.

Anywho, because its week 1 we are forced to use 2019 data and have to attempt to adjust for offseason team changes so here we go:

Bets I like:

Carolina (+3) against Las Vegas

Carolina opens the season at home with a new quarterback, a new coach, and facing a defense that did not perform too well against the pass last season. While numbers did dip when Bridgewater filled in for Drew Brees last year, he managed to still go 5-0 and maintain decent stats.

Seattle (-2.5) at Atlanta

Seattle definitely outperformed their season points averages last season when they came to Atlanta. Playing in Mercedes Benz Stadium with no crowd and fake fan noise should feel all too familiar.

Arizona and San Francisco (Over 48)

These teams went over 48 in 10 of 16 games last season. I think Kyler Murray is primed to have a breakout season this year and this should be a high scoring game.

Miami (+7) at New England

Miami did a much better job keeping games close/winning down the stretch. I think they can do the same in week 1 unless of course Cam Newton learned how to hit a short pass in the offseason.

Washington (+6) against Philadelphia

Numerically this pick probably makes the least amount of sense given that Washington covered a 6 point differential only 5 times last year. But with a new coach and a quarterback looking to make a sophomore jump I am hopeful here.

Data provided by www.pro-football-reference.com

Lines provided by www.bovada.lv

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