• chrisbdbets

NFL Opening Day: Texans @ Chiefs

Football is back and it is opening up with the Chiefs hosting the Texans as a 9.5 point favorite. For those of you saying "college football has been back"- congratulations, now you have the opportunity to watch games where open field dropped passes and botched snaps are greatly reduced. I spent weeks developing this highly scientific model that breaks down the enjoyment level of the NCAA and NFL.


Orange line to represent college football enjoyment while Blue represents NFL enjoyment.


There you go, science.


Because it's week 1 there really isn't much data to go off on, which means all I have is my opinion and for that I am sorry. I think the Chiefs will cover. The knock on Andy Reid before they won the Super Bowl was that he started seasons well but then fell apart in November. The Chiefs starting a season slow has never really been an issue so I don't expect them to have the Super Bowl hangover.


Below is a chart showing the Chief's week 1 performances against other weeks. If anything it looks like they consistently over perform on week 1.


The Texans, on the other hand, look as though they are about to embark on a rough season. I like many others do not understand the DeAndre Hopkins trade. There were too many plays last year where the Hopkins would save the day after the pocket had completely broken on Deshaun Watson. Unless the offensive line has drastically improved, or Will Fuller can carry the extra weight on his shoulders, the dynamic of the offense is going to have to shift to a Baltimore-like system where the touches are primarily going to running backs and tight ends.


Data provided by www.pro-football-reference.com/

Lines provided by www.bovada.lv


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