• chrisbdbets

New Year, Same Browns

I'm convinced that years from now, scientists will study the illogical loyalty Cleveland Browns fans have to their team. I personally would like to volunteer for said test when it comes to fruition. Every season, the hope and confidence bestowed upon Browns fans from the offseason turn into rage and confusion within a matter of weeks. For me, the Browns are like the Starbucks of the NFL. I say that because every week, I will go to Starbucks and get a cup of coffee. I will then place the coffee into a cupholder where it will proceed to leak and explode all over my center console until I reach my destination. I curse, I yell, but ultimately I clean up the mess and return to Starbucks for more coffee. This is my life with the Browns - a continuous loop of getting burned and returning for more.


Despite all of the added talent in the offseason I thought the biggest win was the exit of Freddie Kitchens. For the record, I liked Kitchens at the time of his initial hire. I liked the attitude, I liked the story, and I thought he was a good personality fit with Baker Mayfield. Some commentators hypothesize that the job was too big for him, some say he couldn't manage that many big personalities, but my biggest issue with Kitchens was on several occasions he refused to use Nick Chubb, who at the very least is a top 5 running back in the league.


Enter Stefanski, who had a lot of success with Dalvin Cook. Certainly he understands how to get value out of the running backs:


I guess not? You decided to run the ball 23 times and turn Kareem Hunt into a wide receiver?


This seems painfully obvious but here are a few fun facts about Nick Chubb:


1. In 2019, Chubb averaged 18.6 rushing attempts per game. The Browns were 4-4 when he exceeded this number and 2-6 when he was below this number.



2. The Browns score more points the more often they run the ball with Chubb



There are only 16 data points here so its really difficult to have any significance in the trend line formula however the general trend is upward, which I believe to be accurate.


3. Chubb is not a factor when being used as a distraction



Again as with the view above, the exact formula is not significant but I believe insights can be drawn off the general line. Chubb needs the ball to be a factor. It serves the Browns no good to have him on the field and not use him.


This is high level, day one shit. I thought the Browns organization was committed to making analytical decisions. Instead, this looks more like the analytics team is sitting around with their dicks in their hands arguing over whether or not its better to pass on 3rd and 3.


Just give Chubb the ball and stop taking so many penalties - I'll see you Thursday.


Data provided by www.pro-football-reference.com


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