Deep Dive: Chargers @ Saints
I had some success yesterday looking at one game instead of 15 (go figure). I am going to try to replicate the same process as yesterday to see if there is something there or if it was just lucky. Enjoy.
Points Per Game
There was a reason why I alluded to yesterday just being luck - to be a top team in the NFL you must have a certain level of consistency. Teams like the Ravens, the Chiefs, and the Packers are all usually good for 3 or more touchdowns and to hold some level of defense. Enter the middle of the league where you don't know if the Chargers defense will create problems for Drew Brees or if Justin Herbert can take advantage of a defense that averages 30.75 points per game. The most consistent aspect of these two teams is the Saint's offense, which has scored between 3 and 5 points over the average points allowed of their weekly opponent. The Chargers are allowing 23.75 points against so I think the Saints will score 27. This is where it gets interesting, the Chargers were +2.5 points above the Chiefs average points allowed, -9.5 points below the Panthers average points allowed, and +8 points above the Buccaneers average points allowed. Meanwhile, the Raiders and Lions overperformed their averages by 6.25 and 4.25, respectively. When you average those numbers with the Chargers offensive numbers and the Packers scoring -1 under their average against the Saints, there is a 1.75 point addition the Chargers should receive. Seeing as that the Saints average points allowed is 30.75, I like the Chargers to win 32-27.
Both of these teams are/could be missing a considerable amount of talent, notably:
Saints: Michael Thomas (out), Jared Cook (questionable), Marshon Lattimore (questionable), Janoris Jenkins (questionable)
Chargers: Melvin Ingram (IR), Trai Turner (questionable), Mike Williams (questionable), Austin Ekeler (out)
Michael Thomas has been out of the lineup for weeks and we have seen the adjustments made by the Saints' offense because of that. The questions for me are:
Will the Chargers be able to establish a run with Ekeler out?
Will Justin Herbert have a career day if New Orleans is missing a huge chunk of their secondary?
Revised score: 29-27 Chargers.
Yesterday I used offensive and defensive stats to compare how teams perform but I am going to mix it up with DFS points to see who performs well for and against these teams (data from www.rotoguru1.com)
Justin Herbert has outscored his teammates in DFS 2/3 weeks he has played. That combined with the fact that the highest performing position against the Saints has been the quarterback 2 of 4 weeks makes Herbert a DFS lock. Brees should also be considered as the highest scoring position against the Chargers has been the quarterback 3/4 weeks.
This to me appears to be a quarterback battle with the Chargers defense making a final stop in the end.
29-27 Chargers (Over 50)
Data provided by www.pro-football-reference.com