Deep Dive: Bills @ Titans
The deep dives have been working so I am going to keep rolling with this analysis process. Last night I predicted the Chargers would win 29-27 and that Justin Herbert and Drew Brees would have big games in fantasy. Herbert and Brees both had huge games and the Chargers were a goalpost-banging kick away from winning the game 30-27. If you took the Chargers +7 you would have covered with ease. So let's try this one more time to see if this is scalable.
Points Per Game
This one is extremely messy and the fact that the Titans only have 3 games played this year makes it worse. In order to compare 3 games to 3 games, I am going to drop the Bills Week 1 game against the Jets because I don't find the Jets to be a respectable team. For all of the talk about the Bills defense, it appears that the offense is carrying the team. In the games against the Dolphins and Rams, the offense was able to outperform their opponents' defensive points averages by 7 and 15 points. The Titans meanwhile have only outperformed the Jaguars' defensive point average while elevating the Jaguars and Vikings offenses above their respective scoring averages. With so much variability in these teams' scoring, this feels like a game where they are either going to hit their averages or go back and forth in a field goal battle. I am going to split the difference here and say 24-17 Bills.
Most of the big names on the Titans (A.J. Brown, Taylor Lewan) are probable so I would expect them to play. The Titans are missing some receiving talent in Adam Humphries and Corey Davis so I would expect them to run the ball a little more often tonight.
On the Bills side, there are a lot of players on the IR who haven't played a game this season and a lot of players who are questionable who haven't missed a game this season. I typically assume the player is probable if they have yet to miss time and they are on the injury report. Of the missing players, Levi Wallace (CB, IR) and Matt Milano (LB, Questionable) seem to be the most impactful.
The QB position has been in the top 2 scoring positions against Buffalo every game this season. While Josh Allen has been the highest fantasy performer on Buffalo, Tennessee has been more favorable towards running backs. For DFS, I think it would make more sense to make Ryan Tannehill or Devin Singletary your captain and purchase Josh Allen at the normal price.
Buffalo is favored by 3.5 and I like them to cover. I am not as confident in the over/under. While I predicted 24-17, this game could easily be 34-27 so I am going to stay off the point estimates tonight.
Data provided by www.pro-football-reference.com
Data provided by www.rotoguru1.com